Dai Tamesue at the Rome Golden League (© Getty Images)
The long season for the Asian athletes draws to a close with the Asian Games programme in this port city of Korea from 7 to 14 October.
Undoubtedly, the Games have remained the principal focus of all the Asians throughout yet another hectic season and as in the past, Asia’s athletes are being asked to perform at their best even as their counterparts in Europe, America and elsewhere are packing up for the winter retreat.
Needless to say, the Asians have found it difficult to maintain their peak for such a long period, beginning as they did, like everyone else, in April-May. Quite predictably, with regard to the Asian athletics championships in Colombo in August, the Chinese, in particular, kept their best at home, preserving them for the more prestigious and more rigorous Asian Games.
The Chinese will remain the prime contenders, not only within the larger canvas of the Asian Games but also in the athletics programme in these quadrennial Games. There are 45 track and field gold medals to be won here, and yet again, the Chinese look good enough to top the medals chart, even though they look a little famished and a little less awe-inspiring than what they were, say eight years ago.
Quite inexplicably, the Chinese put up a below-par show last time around in Bangkok, in 1998 when they won 15 gold medals, just enough to beat Japan who took a dozen. Now, they would consider 15 gold medals as an excellent collection this time around.
China’s superiority had been unchallenged since all but sweeping the women’s gold medals in the Beijing Games in 1990, when they took 29 victories in the athletics programme alone.
But now the story is different. The Chinese are no longer wearing those unbeatable vests and are looking more like ordinary mortals. Yet have no doubt they remain strong enough to take on the very best in the region.
In the men’s section the Chinese sprinting supremacy is a thing of the past, their hegemony in throws has been steadily eroded, and they are no longer looking the world-beaters they once were in the women’s middle distance events. Their women looked vulnerable at Bangkok. There is nothing extra-ordinary about them this season either. In fact, after an encouraging performances during the National Games last year, the Chinese have not yet touched the kind of form that could rattle the others.
Looking at it purely from the background of the medal standings that emerged at the Asian meet in Colombo, where China topped the tally with 10 gold medals, with a modest, if not mediocre, line-up, it could be safely argued that it is not going to be easy for the rest of Asia. China should add some more gold medals to their Colombo haul since this time their best athletes are here in Busan.
Ashara in Awesome Form
The men’s 100m gold is not realistically one of the gold medals that the Chinese can count on to add to their tally. For, in awesome form this season is the Japanese long jumper-turned sprinter, Nobuhara Asahara, who missed the last Games and is eyeing the 100m gold, having come through the Grand Prix circuit in quite impressive fashion. Asahara has a best of 10.05 for the season that has, along with countryman Shingo Suetsugu’s similar effort, remained at the top of the Asian lists since June. Suetsugu, however, is more the key Japanese man for the 200 metres.
The men who won in Colombo, Jamal Abdul Al-Saffar of Saudi Arabia (100m) and Gennady Chernovol of Kazakhstan (200m) will find the going tough against the Japanese.
Just as it was in the Asian championships, the men's 400m should provide some rousing fare with a great tussle between Kuwaiti Fawzi Al-Shammari and Saudi Arabian Hamdan O. Al-Bishi, who have been in such splendid form this season. The Kuwaiti struck a lean patch at the Grand Prix Final, finishing eighth, but came back strongly to take the third place at the Madrid World Cup. He should be the man to beat again, though Al-Bishi, as well as Sri Lankan Sugath Tillakeratne will hope to prove that they do have the talent to get onto the centre of the medal podium. India’s P. Ramachandran will have to stretch himself if he is to be in contention for a medal.
The top Korean middle distance runners were absent at Colombo. They will challenge the Qataris at Busan. Kim Soon-Hyung and Lee Jae-Hoon are quite capable of giving the likes of Salem Amer Al-Badri and Adam Abdou Adam a run for their money in the 800 metres. The Qataris felt that they should have won at this distance in Colombo but instead it was an outsider in the shape of Mikhail Kolaganov of Kazakhstan who took the honours. Kolaganov has his task cut out for him this time around. The dark horse could be Indian K. M. Binu, in what will be his first foray at the highest level in the continent, among the seniors.
Abdulrahman Suleiman, younger brother of former Olympic bronze medallist Mohamed Suleiman, has a family tradition to maintain. Mohamed Suleiman ruled the 1500m in Asia for a decade including victories in three Asian Games from 1990, before calling it quits. The younger Suleiman won in Colombo and should start among the favourites here, though Japanese Fumikazu Kobayashi has better credentials.
It is in the men’s distance events that the Japanese normally assert themselves, though they will have to contend with the veteran Qatari Ahmed Ibrahim Warsama and possibly Saudi Arabian Olayan Sultan Al-Qahtani who is making a comeback. The 36-year-old Warsama, while winning the 10,000 metres in Colombo, commented that it was just a build-up for the Asian Games. Japan has Tomoo Tsubota in the 10,000 (27:51.85 this season) and there should be a keen duel between him and Warsama.
The 5000 metres looks more open with a horde of talented runners likely to be in the fray.
Qatar’s Khamis Seif Abdullah, who should be the co-favourite in the 3000m steeplechase, along with Asian record holder Saad Shaddad Al-Asmari of Saudi Arabia, should also contest the 5000 metres just as he did in Colombo, when he won. The experienced Japanese, Toshihiro Iwasa and his team-mate Tomohiro Seto should also be throwing their hats into the 5000m ring.
There shouldn’t be many arguments in the high hurdles where Chinese Liu Xiang is in a different league. China has won the 110m hurdles titles at the last four Asian Games, just as Japan had won the 10,000m gold medals since 1986.
Mouthwatering contest in the 400m Hurdles
With World Championship bronze medallist Dai Tamesue who is bounding into some sort of a form after an early-season injury pegged him down, should be the man to aim at in what could be a mouthwatering contest in the 400 metres hurdles. Saudi Arabian Haadi Soua’an Al-Somaily, Tamesue and Qatari Mubarak Sultan Al-Nubi should form the dramatis personae in this battle royale. The Saudi, whose third-place finish at the Zurich Golden League meeting came in 48.11s, looks to have the edge.
Lee Jin-Taek, the 30-year-old Korean veteran, the best high jumper in Asia since the days of Chinese Zhu Jianhua, has had a low-key season so far with a best of 2.22. Yet make no mistake, he will be there battling it out with younger adversaries including Chinese Cui Kai and Wang Zhouzhou. Needless to mention Jin-Taek will have the full-throated backing of the home crowd.
The Japanese, Fumiaki Kobayashi and Satoru Yasuda will have to battle with another veteran, Kazakhstan’s Grigoriy Yegorov in Pole Vault, as well as a strong Chinese and the Japanese presence. Saudi Arabians Hussein Taher Al-Sabee and Salem Mouled Al-Ahmadi should start as favourites in the Long Jump and Triple Jump respectively.
India's Best Chance
The throws, which the Chinese once ruled, should provide the best chance for India. Shakti Singh and Bahadur Singh have consistently produced marks over 19 metres this season, and with China not even entering a competitor in the men’s shot put, they have a great opportunity of pulling off a gold-silver finish.
Qatari Saad Bilal Mubarak, the reigning Asian champion, might not agree. In recent times, the performances in shot put have swung abnormally from world-class to club-level in Asia and there is no guarantee that it could be different this time.
Another Qatari, Rasheed Shafi Al-Dosari has produced a stunning discus throw of 64.43 for a National record and gold in the Asian champs meet and though he skipped the World Cup, he should fancy his chances once again. However, the field is so open, with Indian Anil Kumar crossing 60 metres regularly at his training base in Hungary (with a National mark of 62.12 in August) and with the Chinese Wu Tao, the World Junior champion, logging a 62.04m this season, it could be a toss-up. On any given day all the three men should be in with a chance to aim for the gold.
There are no such imponderables in the Hammer Throw. The winner should be Japan’s Koji Murofushi, without him even breaking sweat. The Japanese is the only one in the 80-plus range in Asia at the moment. He already has one gold to add to the five his father Shigenobu Murofushi took during his own Asian Games career. Seven for the family will be an impressive collection. The real contest will be for the silver in which another Japanese, Hiroaki Doi looks to head the chasing pack, which includes Uzbek Viktor Ustinov.
Chinese Li Rongxiang should be the overwhelming favourite for the Javelin Throw gold, with Uzbek Sergey Voynov and Korean Park Jae-Myong likely to fight it out for the silver.
After having led right up to the beginning of the last event in Decathlon, the 1500 metres, Chinese Qi Haifeng, had to quit due to an injury in Colombo. The 19-year-old decathlete who has had 8000-plus this year, should take the multi-event unless something goes wrong again.
The Japanese have the talent and history on their side as they aim for a sweep of the relay titles. The Thais, in the shorter relay, and Sri Lanka, India, Kuwait and Qatar in the longer one should pose the challenge.
The Continuing Chinese Mystery
To think of anyone other than a Chinese as a possible champion in the women’s programme might have been rather foolish some years ago, but the scene looks vastly different today. Eighteen of 19 gold medals in the women’s section at home in 1990 was proof of China’s crushing superiority over the rest. By 1994, the tally had dwindled to 14 and in another four years it had come down to 10.
Bangkok looked like an aberration for the Chinese, needless to say, they are bound to come back with a vengeance. But they don’t have the sheer weight of performances to back them up this season. Much is at stake here as China prepares to invite the world to their fascinating land for the 2008 Olympics.
The National Games last year did produce a handful of excellent efforts by the women. But after that there has been a lull, quite uncharacteristic by Chinese standards. True, they looked ill-prepared and jaded in Bangkok in 1998, but can that situation stay like that forever?
That the Chinese cannot be found at the top of any of the women’s track events barring the sprint hurdles this season is a sad commentary on the declining standards in that country. There is no Wang Junxia or Qu Yunxia, not even a Jiang Bo or a Dong Yanmei to up hold honour. There is no Li Xuemei in the sprints, though a couple of experienced sprinters in Yan Jiankui and Chen Yuxiang have been entered.
The Chinese sprint duo are likely to pale in front of the dazzle and buzzle of the Sri Lankan, Susanthika Jayasinghe, the Olympic 200m bronze medallist. The 27-year-old Sri Lankan bagged an effortless sprint double in front of adoring home fans in Colombo in August. An encore at Busan is almost taken for granted.
The petite Uzbek, Lyubov Perepelova should have been considered the Sri Lankan’s closest rival in both the events in Busan, but almost out of nowhere, Indian Saraswati Saha has emerged as a contender in the 200 metres. Saha’s 22.82 seconds at Ludhiana in the last week of August is an indication of such a possibility.
Damayanthi Darsha’s fitness should be causing concern to the Sri Lankans. A hamstring injury kept her in check during the Commonwealth Games and forced her to skip the individual events in the Asian meet in Colombo. Here she has been entered just for the 400 and not the 200-400 combo, which she successfully tackled in Bangkok, four years ago.
Darsha-Beenamol Showdown
Even a fit Darsha might find it difficult to match the smooth-striding, frail-looking Indian, K. M. Beenamol in the 400 metres. Coaches and the federation had reportedly held her back from flying out early to be the flag-bearer of her country at the opening ceremony of the Games last Sunday, in order not to disturb the final phase of her training.
Based on her steady improvement in the 400m, the fact that Beenamol had beaten Darsha in one of the Asian Grand Prix meets at the beginning of the season and her 2:02.01 performance in the 800 metres, the Indian is being projected as a possible double gold medallist at these Games. If she does that she would have emulated Jyotirmoyee Sikdar who won the 800-1500 double at Bangkok, and P. T. Usha who won three individual golds in 1986.
Another Indian who has emerged as a gold medal contender among the women is Sunita Rani. Out of action for almost two years, because of a stress fracture, Sunita made a triumphant return this season with a 4:08.60 for the1500m, close to her National mark set three years ago. There will be few who would be able to match the Indian if she is able to repeat that sort of form. Japanese Tamura Ikuko and Kyrgyzstan’s Tatyana Borisova could be the others in contention in the metric mile.
Japanese Kayoko Fukushi looks strong in the distance events, though the North Korean marathon runner, Ham Bong Sil, who won the distance double at Colombo, could pose a serious threat to the potential Japanese domination.
Feng Yun and Sun Yiping should be able to keep the Chinese supremacy intact in the women’s 100m Hurdles, while Natalya Torshina of Kazakhstan looks strong enough to retain her hold over the 400m Hurdles.
The jumps should once again provide the Indians with a chance to figure among the medals, though the task for Anju B. George (nee Markose) in Long Jump and Triple Jump and Bobby Aloysius, in High Jump, is going to be much tougher than those of the runners. Aloysius won silver at Colombo behind Kyrgyzstan’s Tatyana Efimenko who should once again starts as the favourite. Just as at Colombo, Aloysius will have to contend with Japanese Miki Imai and Yoko Ota and Kazakhs Sevtlana Zalevskaya and Marina Khorsova.
Though the Chinese retain their hold over the women’s Pole Vault, with Shuying Gao literally towering over the rest with 4.43 this season, China has slackened its grip over the Long Jump. From 1974 through to 1998, China had won the gold in this event, but this time it looks as though the top prize will go elsewhere. This does not mean that the two Chinese in the fray, Gu Ying and Jin Yan are going to be mere pushovers. It is just that the performances of Kazakh Yelena Kashchayeva and Anju George this season, hold out the promise that they will sort out the top two places.
To run them close will be the Chinese and Japanese Maho Hanaoka. George’s 6.74 in Delhi happens to be the leading mark of the season. The Indian is entered in the Triple Jump competition also. Here she can at best hope for a medal, as China’s Huang Qiuyan starts as the overwhelming favourite.
China should regain throws supremacy
Even in the throws China has given away considerable ground in the last two editions of the Games, but in Busan the Chinese should reign supreme once again.
The women’s Hammer will be making its debut this time and Gu Yuan who set an Asian record of 71.10m in Colombo should be aiming for the gold. Li Meiju in Shot Put and Song Aimin or Ma Shuli in Discus could be adding to the Chinese golden tally. India’s Neelam Jaswant Singh has the capacity to provide a shock, though her own record in competitions abroad has not matched her feats at home.
The doubt for China, if there is any, is in Javelin where Liang Lili, though she is ahead in the season rankings, could be stretched by Korean Lee Young-Sun. The experienced Korean, defending her title, is bound to be in inspired mood in front of home support. Hao Xiaoyan and Japanese Takako Miyake are the other main contenders.
Shen Shengfei of China and Svetlana Kazanina of Kazakhstan, the gold and silver medal winners from the last Games should renew their battle in Heptathlon. The unpredictable aspect could be the form and capacity of the Indians, Soma Biswas and J. J. Shobha.
China should be looking forward to retaining their hold on the sprint relay, while India, with an array of four girls running below 54 seconds for the lap should regain the 4x400m gold that they last won in 1986 also in Korea, not Busan, but in Seoul where P. T. Usha won four gold medals.
By an IAAF Correspondent
